Thursday, April 21, 2016

'Crime wave' talk aside, Texas crime way down, say the numbers

Note to Dallas reporters writing panic-stricken stories about a "crime wave" because of a short-term spike in murders: Please read this analysis from the Brennan Center about crime in America in 2015. (Here's the full pdf version of the report.) Then calm the *bleep* down.

Bottom line, crime remains "at historic lows" and increases in violent crime used to tout some sort of "Ferguson effect" last year were overstated.

In terms of murder rates, "The 2015 murder rate rose by 13.3 percent in the 30 largest cities, with 19 cities seeing increases and 6 decreases. However, in absolute terms, murder rates are so low that a small numerical increase can lead to a large percentage change" (emphasis added).

Beyond murders, "Overall crime rates in America’s 30 largest cities were nearly identical from 2014 to 2015, according to an analysis of final 2015 numbers. Crime declined over that time period by 0.1 percent. The data show that crime rates remain at historic lows nationally, despite recent upticks in a handful of cities.

Looking back at 2015 as a whole, "Two-thirds of cities saw drops in crime, which were offset mostly by an increase in Los Angeles (12.7 percent). Nationally, crime remains at all-time lows."

And when we talk about violent crime, the effects are quite isolated: "Violent crime rose slightly, by 3.1 percent. This result was primarily caused by increasing violence in Los Angeles (25.2 percent), Baltimore (19.2 percent), and Charlotte (15.9 percent). Notably, aggravated assaults in Los Angeles account for more than half of the national rise in violent crime."

Of Texas cities included in their analysis:
  • Houston's overall crime rate dropped 4.9 percent from 2014 to 2015, with violent crime declining 2.4 percent; murders up 23.1 percent.
  • Dallas' overall crime rate dropped 4.5 percent from 2014 to 2015, with violent crime increasing by 4.1 percent; murders up 7.7 percent.
  • San Antonio's overall crime rate dropped 5.2 percent from 2014 to 2015, with violent crime increasing 11.8 percent; murders are down 10.4 percent. 
  • Austin's overall crime rate dropped 9.8 percent from 2014 to 2015, with violent crime declining 8.6 percent; murders are down 33.1 percent.
  • Fort Worth's 's overall crime rate dropped 8.0 percent from 2014 to 2015, with violent crime declining 2.7 percent; murders up 7.0 percent. 

Again, when considering murder rates, it can't be overemphasized that, as stated before, "in absolute terms, murder rates are so low that a small numerical increase can lead to a large percentage change." That's what's happening in Texas. It's safer to live here right now, essentially, than anytime during your correspondent's adult lifetime.

MORE: The Atlantic last week ran a story questioning, "What caused the great crime decline in the US?" For those seeking answers to this surprisingly difficult question, see:

AND MORE: From the Texas Tribune.

5 comments:

Gordon L. Dilmore said...

You should get an award from the Chamber of Commerce for your forceful denial of the facts!

Gritsforbreakfast said...

And which "facts" are those, Gordon, do tell! Brennan is crunching data, where do your contrary "facts" come from?

Gordon L. Dilmore said...

My facts come from much more reliable sources than the garbage you spew out.

George said...

@Gordon

I'd be interested in reading these facts of yours as well. Produce or else put aside any argument as to your lack of ignorance.

You can spout off just about anything, backing it up with credible facts dispels any doubt.

Anonymous said...


http://www.areavibes.com/houston-tx/crime/

SAFE TO LIVE IN HOUSTON?

Most frequent crimes in the past year:
75,529 COUNTS OF THEFT
16,325 COUNTS OF BURGLARY
11,338 COUNTS OF THEFT FROM VEHICLE
9,787 COUNTS OF ROBBERY
9,040 COUNTS OF ASSAULT
http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Houston-Texas/crime/

CRIME INDEX: 4 (100 is safest) - Safer than 4% of the cities in the US.
Annual crimes per 1,000 residents:
VIOLENT: 9.90 Property: 47.42 Total: 57.32

Two Houston neighborhoods called most dangerous in U.S.
neighborhoodscout.com/tx/houston/crime/

http://www.texasmonthly.com/the-daily-post/the-fbis-list-of-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-texas/