tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post2766113621247385286..comments2024-03-25T20:06:39.794-05:00Comments on Grits for Breakfast: The Reverse Lottery Theory of Texas Criminal JusticeGritsforbreakfasthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-52982484858508123162007-10-12T08:00:00.000-05:002007-10-12T08:00:00.000-05:00Yeah, but it gives you a nice warm feeling to delu...Yeah, but it gives you a nice warm feeling to delude yourself into believing that these long sentences are mandatory and that no one escapes justice. This feeling lasts a lot longer when you live in a protected gated community and don't have crimes committed daily that go unpunished. It also helps when the "good guys" aren't constantly doing fishing expeditions on one run per month as a suspected criminal or breaking into your neighbors' homes on false pretenses. Of course it helps when those in the gated communities have talk show hosts who blame their higher taxes on social welfare programs and illegal immigrants - without any hard statistical data to back that up. Oh, it also helps if you are actively discouraged from actually thinking about the cause of these problems with mass media telling you what the problem is [hint: it's "those" people].JT Barriehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15571868033521182864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-31039311117539483282007-10-11T14:03:00.000-05:002007-10-11T14:03:00.000-05:00I witnessed an extreme lottery loser in Denton Cou...I witnessed an extreme lottery loser in Denton County. After all, it is all about the money. As one of the unaware general public, I had no idea of the ways of the criminal justice system in Texas. Frankly, I was much happier before I had a clue and I expect so is the rest of the population.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-34828414638058380092007-10-11T12:20:00.000-05:002007-10-11T12:20:00.000-05:00"The idea of punishment as a deterrence might go a..."The idea of punishment as a deterrence might go a lot further if potential criminals knew more about the true consequences of their acts."<BR/><BR/>That's a big part of the idea behind the <A HREF="http://gritsforbreakfast.blogspot.com/2007/07/restorative-justice-conference-link.html" REL="nofollow">restorative justice movement</A>.<BR/><BR/>And Don, a flaming liberal? I'm the one that said go buy a gun! ;)Gritsforbreakfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-48397332629336255162007-10-11T12:17:00.000-05:002007-10-11T12:17:00.000-05:00Punishment, prisons, the realities of life for the...Punishment, prisons, the realities of life for the few that "loose the lottery" need to be much more visible to the public. The idea of punishment as a deterrance might go a lot further if potential criminals knew more about the true consequences of their acts.<BR/><BR/>Minor acts of anti-social behavior often results in a wrist slap that leads the individual to believe their act is "not really that bad". This can lead to a false sense of security that is dashed when the "system" finally gets fed up and sends them to prison.<BR/><BR/>My position is to legalize most drug use and heavy fines for most minor offenses. Then provide proper due process, defense and prosecution for serious crimes. Invest in education and rehabilitation for all criminals and a real chance to become good citizens after prison.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-3465260224977041162007-10-11T12:05:00.000-05:002007-10-11T12:05:00.000-05:00I'm with tjdo. I've worked in and around the crim...I'm with tjdo. I've worked in and around the criminal "justice" system for 20 years, and I've never seen a criminal who claimed to have done a statistical analysis on his odds of getting caught, getting prosecuted, his likely consequences weighed against his likely gains, etc. This is the great flaw in the reasoning, or lack of it, in the deterrent arugument. But the "tuff on crime" crowd have to have something to answer the occasional flaming liberal who asks "but, um, what about these numbers, Mr. Right Wing Wacko?" The old stock answer was "Well, it's not perfect, but it's the best system in the world." But the flaming liberal got smart, and now they just repeat the question. "Yes, but uh, what about these numbers?" (such as the ones grits talks about in this post). So now the occasional "example" has a societal payoff. Sure it does.Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16902834245861000386noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-37274799928838948532007-10-11T11:29:00.000-05:002007-10-11T11:29:00.000-05:00So even if someone accepts the economic argument o...So even if someone accepts the economic argument of criminal justice, then wouldn't this approach, as 9:53 implied, actually reduce the expected cost of committing a crime to a potential offender? If you don't expect to get caught, don't expect a conviction if you're charged, and don't expect a harsh sentence if you're convicted, then what deterrant is there?Editorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10588085847973133375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-21670282678436042272007-10-11T10:36:00.000-05:002007-10-11T10:36:00.000-05:00When I was growing up in Milwaukee County they wou...When I was growing up in Milwaukee County they would expedite prosecution in high profile violent crimes such as armed robbery. I recall one case where an armed gang was burglarizing a factory and they were caught in the act (a few shots were fired but no deaths or injuries). They were convicted and sent to the prison at Waupun very quickly (maybe a week) in order to provide an example for the rest of us. <BR/><BR/>Most of us were law abiding citizens who never considered getting into a situation where we would exchange gunfire with the police. General deterrence is being applied to people who are not likely to commit crimes in the first place. My recollection was the the police thought that the most important aspect of that particular crime was that a citizen reported suspicious behavior and the criminals were caught in the act.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-61661608123056860372007-10-11T10:17:00.000-05:002007-10-11T10:17:00.000-05:00So, Mr. Breen is a believer in the rational choice...So, Mr. Breen is a believer in the rational choice theory that teenagers, of all people, understand the dynamics of the costs and benefits of their crimes despite the fact that their brains aren't fully developed to understand cognition. I guesss one wonders.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps Mr. Breen would have been better off saying the kid did a lousy job of shopping around for crime and comparing those costs and benefits.tttthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12920590524803977044noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-71746589233835393582007-10-11T09:53:00.000-05:002007-10-11T09:53:00.000-05:00The analogy is extremely flawed because with the L...The analogy is extremely flawed because with the Lottery, when you buy a ticket, you tend to learn relatively quickly whether or not you're a winner or loser. How many people would buy Lottery tickets if they wouldn't find out for months, or even years, what the results were?<BR/><BR/>So goes the criminal justice system. The most serious crimes, the ones we'd most like deterred, are the ones that take the longest to process. The more time that lapses between the actual crime and the final punishment, the less mental connection (cause and direct effect) there is between the two. If people could hypothetically be arrested, tried, sentenced, and maybe executed within a week or so of their crimes, maybe genuine widespread deterrence would take place. But since that kind of system would be ridiculous, we don't use it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com