tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post3403482886277340956..comments2024-03-15T05:45:01.402-05:00Comments on Grits for Breakfast: Is juvenile crime in Texas declining?Gritsforbreakfasthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-71602604234426292872008-09-16T16:53:00.000-05:002008-09-16T16:53:00.000-05:00Valuable resource of juvenile crime news summaries...Valuable resource of juvenile crime news summaries: <A HREF="http://ng2000.com/ng2000bb/YaBB.pl?num=1221461351" REL="nofollow">http://ng2000.com/ng2000bb/YaBB.pl?num=1221461351</A>ng2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/14287326444923169630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-81141415871363509442008-09-16T16:52:00.000-05:002008-09-16T16:52:00.000-05:00Valuable resource of juvenile crime news summaries...Valuable resource of juvenile crime news summaries: <A HREF="http://ng2000.com/ng2000bb/YaBB.pl?num=1221461351" REL="nofollow">http://ng2000.com/ng2000bb/YaBB.pl?num=1221461351</A>ng2000https://www.blogger.com/profile/14287326444923169630noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-19787592697074433752008-06-01T21:17:00.000-05:002008-06-01T21:17:00.000-05:002:54,Just wanted to highlight that the problem is ...2:54,<BR/>Just wanted to highlight that the problem is not just with DSO's. Many VOA youth are now just "riding out" their time. They will age out at 19, have no supervision (no parole because TYC no longer has jurisdiction). Huge problems now occurring with the lowering of the age regarding DSO sentencing structure and VOA's not being motivated to engage the treatment process.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-62484184971042738132008-04-25T21:14:00.000-05:002008-04-25T21:14:00.000-05:002:54,i hope you have the influence to actually mak...2:54,<BR/>i hope you have the influence to actually make a review of that happen...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-7340010442912499442008-04-25T14:54:00.000-05:002008-04-25T14:54:00.000-05:00Hey 9:31That is the most reasonable suggestion I h...Hey 9:31<BR/><BR/>That is the most reasonable suggestion I have heard on this topic thus far!!! Without doubt, this issue will be revisited next session.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-79041433959589703462008-04-25T08:04:00.000-05:002008-04-25T08:04:00.000-05:00Good discussion, folks. In particular, moving the ...Good discussion, folks. In particular, moving the 19-21 year olds really would shift the numbers. I'll listen to the 4-22 hearing, see what else I can figure out on this, and post again on it this weekend.Gritsforbreakfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-18236796323402101222008-04-24T21:33:00.000-05:002008-04-24T21:33:00.000-05:00Based on the stories out of Houston the numbers co...Based on the stories out of Houston the numbers could be even lower if the kids didn't have crappy representation selected on the base on cronyism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-13225330356150583632008-04-24T21:31:00.000-05:002008-04-24T21:31:00.000-05:00If we are talking about number of kids under super...If we are talking about number of kids under supervision than the increase of youth transferred to the adult system would have a direct impact on those under supervision, even though they were initially a juvenile referral. I think this plays a tremendous part in the system. i think lowering the age of TYC to 19 will ultimately be viewed as draconian. I think Violent A offenders (24 month minimum) and DSO's (24-120 months minimum)should be allowed to stay in TYC until they are 21. Too many youth who are candidates for rehabilitation are going to be transferred to TDCJ because they will not have enough time to do treatment in TYC. The 16 year old who commits a serious offense and has some court delays will never be sent to TYC. They will be transferred to TDCJ not having the opportunity to complete the violent offender program. throwing the kid away.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-41977654723232799372008-04-24T21:24:00.001-05:002008-04-24T21:24:00.001-05:00The outflux of youth from TYC is to parole not pro...The outflux of youth from TYC is to parole not probation. They would not likely fit into the probation statistics if they were to reoffend while on parole would they? So the expectation that caseloads would increase related to the decrease TYC population is not necessarily expected, except for having to carry more misdemeanants.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-14930043132785819302008-04-24T21:24:00.000-05:002008-04-24T21:24:00.000-05:00Cops write reports of crime all day long. Only wa...Cops write reports of crime all day long. Only way a juvie gets arrested is if they jump in the cops car. Of all crime reported statewide, what is the arrest rate for said crimes? 10%? Less? don't talk this juvie crime rate smack.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-91442715338277628722008-04-24T21:21:00.000-05:002008-04-24T21:21:00.000-05:00Hey Scott, I would bet in the next eight months, w...Hey Scott, I would bet in the next eight months, we are going to see an increase of felony offenders being sent from the counties. I'm starting to see that trend happening now. The judges, as predicted, are starting to felonize youth whereas in the past, they'd allow for a plea down. Keep your eye on this one, because it just goes to show the counties aren't very trusting of the ledge. They've seen these budget cuts we've faced, and even with a guarantee, I wouldn't put a dime on the bet the counties won't felonize youngsters. Watch the trends before the session, because I'm sure it's going to be tale-telling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-52957789279505355782008-04-24T21:19:00.000-05:002008-04-24T21:19:00.000-05:00It could be that some misdemeanant youth decide to...It could be that some misdemeanant youth decide to behave because they know the next time they go before the court they will likely be pinned with a felony. Unlikely prospect but possible.<BR/><BR/>It also could be due to the overall general increase in youth who have been tried as adults in recent years. These kids are certainly not at-risk for recidivism any time soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-91286279820563865092008-04-24T21:16:00.000-05:002008-04-24T21:16:00.000-05:00A review of OJJDP will find a decline in total juv...A review of OJJDP will find a decline in total juvenile arrests over the past decade (which isn't saying much given the tremendous surge in the 90's) but significant increases in offenses against persons (typically violent crimes) and drug offenses.<BR/><BR/>Is the 40,000 whatever number actual kids under supervision or is it number of referrals for the year? What percentage of those youth are in detention? Is this more or less than a year ago?<BR/><BR/>Also Grits, is there really growth for the juvenile aged population?<BR/><BR/>I also wonder if the cops are just giving the misdemeanant youth warnings, letting them walk because of overburdened juvenile systems?<BR/><BR/>It is most certainly not because the youth were scared of coming to TYC due to the abuse allegations as they all think it will never happen to them anyway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-77838996514088853662008-04-24T19:29:00.000-05:002008-04-24T19:29:00.000-05:00Agreed, 5:15!Agreed, 5:15!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-5774320988320839362008-04-24T17:32:00.000-05:002008-04-24T17:32:00.000-05:00Associated Press April 24DALLAS – A Texas Youth ...Associated Press April 24<BR/><BR/>DALLAS – A Texas Youth Commission superintendent quit before she was fired after allowing two juvenile inmates to work alongside an adult whose probation banned him from working unsupervised with minors, an agency investigation revealed. <BR/><BR/>Lisa Cooke, who had headed the McFadden Ranch in Roanoke in Denton County for five years, also accepted cash from relatives of inmates at the facility for youths with substance abuse problems, according to documents obtained by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-39549700574325207502008-04-24T17:15:00.000-05:002008-04-24T17:15:00.000-05:00If you think the trend of declining numbers will c...If you think the trend of declining numbers will continue you are wrong. With the economy tanking fast these numbers are only heading one direction. Thats why locals will never take over the state's responsibility no matter what they promise.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-86171165073642991722008-04-24T17:06:00.000-05:002008-04-24T17:06:00.000-05:00Uh, JJ I did call the slight decline "flat growth,...Uh, JJ I did call the slight decline "flat growth," which isn't really overstating things. But that's after increasing around 6% annually for two decades, AND in the face of transferring hard core misdemeanants to locals (who account for a lot of recidivism). One explanation could be that juvie crime could be declining overall, if referrals are flat while the overall population increases.<BR/><BR/>There could be many other explanations for the numbers. But LBB and TJPC projected and budgeted for an increase that did not come. The subject of their discussion and my post was "Why?" It's a good question.Gritsforbreakfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-23942700141661104522008-04-24T16:32:00.000-05:002008-04-24T16:32:00.000-05:00Sorry - didn't specify the TYC number - 411 less n...Sorry - didn't specify the TYC number - 411 less new committmentsMonkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03005208413859626073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-8710844114827463792008-04-24T16:31:00.000-05:002008-04-24T16:31:00.000-05:00TJPC developed and provide the database that all j...TJPC developed and provide the database that all juvenile probation department use (Caseworker 5). The data is donw/uploaded to TJPC by the 10th day of each month. Very little lag time and accurate data. <BR/><BR/>If a kid is referred for murder and they are later certified as an adult, they still show up on the books as a referral to the juvenile justice system for murder. There may be more kids getting certified and that may explain a slight supervision reduction. LBB brought up supervision numbers being down. <BR/><BR/>TYC numbers are down from FY 2006 to FY 2007 by 411 kids. That stat is located on TYCs website.Monkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03005208413859626073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-10448520938765660772008-04-24T15:09:00.000-05:002008-04-24T15:09:00.000-05:00What county are you in, 2:51? Do you think it's j...What county are you in, 2:51? Do you think it's just a data lag -- that county's haven't sent their updated numbers in yet for the year?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-37359632016365926012008-04-24T14:51:00.000-05:002008-04-24T14:51:00.000-05:00The only thing I have to say, it is not going down...The only thing I have to say, it is not going down, because everyday we get new kids coming to TYC, EVERYDAY!!! Mon thru Friday, we get them, it is not on the decline, I see it for myself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-62410958870216568452008-04-24T14:46:00.000-05:002008-04-24T14:46:00.000-05:00The number of referrals to juvenile probation (fro...The number of referrals to juvenile probation (from schools, cops & parents) is apparently down from this time as compared to previous years. That's the number in question. There are actually more kids under supervision though (formal disposition) than in the past, despite the fact that the total number of referrals is down. <BR/><BR/>Yes, juvy crime rates have been going down steadily since the '90s, so the question is not, "is juvenile crime declining". Since there aren't more kids going into TYC, but they aren't being referred to juvenile probation either, the question is "where are these kids?” <BR/><BR/>The answer (given by Spriggs at this week's Senate Finance hearing, pointed to by Retired '04) is that the kids are being certified to the adult system.<BR/><BR/>Youth can be certified at age 14 for certain types of crimes, including non-violent drug offenses. Many of the determinate sentenced youth currently in TYC (who will largely go on to be on adult parole) could also have been certified, based on their offense. When SB 103 changed the age limit for youth in TYC from 19 to 21 it inadvertently messed up the determinate sentencing structure that was preventing a certain population of youth from being certified. <BR/><BR/>At the next hearings, TDCJ and local DAs should be brought in to speak to whether this is where the missing kids are.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-76345811976242890052008-04-24T13:41:00.000-05:002008-04-24T13:41:00.000-05:00I remember my stats professor in college telling u...I remember my stats professor in college telling us how stats can be worked to prove any point.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-14490211757828811582008-04-24T13:37:00.000-05:002008-04-24T13:37:00.000-05:00OK Grits... I went and listened to the LBB talking...OK Grits... I went and listened to the LBB talking about a population reduction in juvenile probation supervision. She stated that the number went from 40,783 kids under supervision to 40,638 and she really didn't nail down the dates or what she was looking at but I don't think I would call that some big reduction in juvenile crime. <BR/><BR/>The only way to figure out if juvenile crime is declining is to look at the referrals. Some kids actually get arrested more than once. <BR/><BR/>Seems to me that the number increase they are talking about is the fact that the locals would have to maintain more kids in the community because of SB 103. <BR/><BR/>There are different ways to control your supervision levels.Monkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03005208413859626073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-2172535252857164842008-04-24T13:34:00.001-05:002008-04-24T13:34:00.001-05:00OK Grits... I went and listened to the LBB talking...OK Grits... I went and listened to the LBB talking about a population reduction in juvenile probation supervision. She stated that the number went from 40,783 kids under supervision to 40,638 and she really didn't nail down the dates or what she was looking at but I don't think I would call that some big reduction in juvenile crime. <BR/><BR/>The only way to figure out if juvenile crime is declining is to look at the referrals. <BR/><BR/>Seems to me that the number increase they are talking about is the fact that the locals would have to maintain more kids in the community because of SB 103. <BR/><BR/>There are different ways to control your supervision levels.Monkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03005208413859626073noreply@blogger.com