tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post4101959775665638772..comments2024-03-15T05:45:01.402-05:00Comments on Grits for Breakfast: Hypothesizing reasons for continued crime declinesGritsforbreakfasthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-37954939936350063162012-06-30T09:19:28.692-05:002012-06-30T09:19:28.692-05:00I am involved in intergenerational crime/delinquen...I am involved in intergenerational crime/delinquency research and some preliminary findings based on national data examining delinquency among adolescents in the late 1970s (age 11-17 at beginning of the study), AND their offspring of the same age in the early 21st century show substantial drops in traditional forms of crime from older to younger generations. There is some indirect evidence that technologically-oriented normative AND criminal behaviors are playing a major role in these shifts. However, preliminary information shows few meaningful generational differences in "causes" of delinquency. <br /><br />If you accurately include technology-aided crime in statistics, the rates would be much higher overall, though violent crime would still be low.M Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06159138719032099714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-13884034205560498802012-06-18T17:37:15.210-05:002012-06-18T17:37:15.210-05:00Why isn't anything I posted showing up this we...Why isn't anything I posted showing up this week? <br /><br />I like the ageing population theory, the video-game effect, the CSI effect, and A Critic's snowball effect. <br /><br />SSRI drugs would increase crime. Lead was removed from gasoline but children have more vaccines.<br />Maybe the public is just too sick to commit violent acts! <br /><br />My suggestion was that technology has advanced enough to prevent car theft, and arson is about the same but we used to cry "arson!" after an accidental fire. <br /><br />~L~Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-89463759354569567412012-06-16T21:57:28.811-05:002012-06-16T21:57:28.811-05:00I've wondered if there might be a sort of snow...I've wondered if there might be a sort of snowball effect at work - let's assume that human behavior is mostly learned, and thus that some amount of criminal (or especially violent) behavior is learned. As criminal behavior declines, fewer (young) people will see crimes being committed around them and "learn" to act that way. So whatever the original reasons for declines in crime, be they demographic or technological or chemical or what-have-you, such declines might have a tendency to become self-perpetuating or self-multiplying beyond the magnitude we might expect from the original cause. Just a theory!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-88073477520525927632012-06-15T13:46:01.183-05:002012-06-15T13:46:01.183-05:00Grits: "But Grits believes those arguments ar...Grits: "But Grits believes those arguments are debunked by essentially similar trends demonstrated in national victimization surveys."<br /><br />Those arguments can be demonstrated to be bogus by their lopsided nature. <br /><br />Should crime go up, Anonymouse would never claim that citizens' reporting frequency just rose. He'd claim it was crime itself that was up. But should it go down, citizens are clamming up alofa sudden. <br /><br />My idea: is arson going down becuz the gov less frequently uses pseudoscience to classify a fire as "arson"? Auto theft, because of gadgets to prevent theft?<br /><br />~L~Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-82116472687754253722012-06-13T15:15:35.724-05:002012-06-13T15:15:35.724-05:00Arce mentions sociologists and a theory why the cr...Arce mentions sociologists and a theory why the crime rate might have fallen. In the 1990s, there was an expectation that a crop of super-predators would arise that would cause an upward spike in crime, that these were the offspring of parents/grandparents who did not discipline these offspring, so that they became functionally feral. The point may say more about the difficulty in coming up with a hypothesis that does account for any change in the crime rate. For certain, though, trends that don't fit at least make for a living discussion in any criminology course...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-54338336983100654712012-06-13T13:47:59.823-05:002012-06-13T13:47:59.823-05:00How can anyone say that tough on crime doesn't...How can anyone say that tough on crime doesn't work? Maybe tougher sentences we have been handing out do work. It just takes a little time to see the results trickle down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-50848124340539627532012-06-13T13:17:13.430-05:002012-06-13T13:17:13.430-05:00There are surely many factors - what about CSI and...There are surely many factors - what about CSI and other TV shows? Most people have the impression that those shows are accurate - perhaps the idiots likely to commit crimes are sometimes dissuaded because they believe they'll be caught via forensic technology?A Criticnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-38009423505355400332012-06-13T05:25:48.122-05:002012-06-13T05:25:48.122-05:00Thanks Tim.
And to 7:38 (and 7:50, 10:52, and 1:3...Thanks Tim.<br /><br />And to 7:38 (and 7:50, 10:52, and 1:34 - all likely the same person), I've already answered your question in the next to last paragraph of this post, which you simply ignore. So let's restate it here. Please respond directly:<br /><br />"Finally, there are usually a few, typically anonymous zealots/trolls who show up whenever FBI crime data are reported to claim that they far understate actual crime, much of which, the argument goes, remains forever unreported. (Often this absurd construction attributes unreported crime to the success of the "stop snitching" meme.) But Grits believes those arguments are debunked by essentially similar trends demonstrated in national crime victimization surveys, which also <a href="http://gritsforbreakfast.blogspot.com/2011/09/crime-victimization-continues-to.html" rel="nofollow">show crime declining</a>. I'm willing to believe numbers are juked in some jurisdictions, but that's something that must be demonstrated, not merely alleged."<br /><br />If victimization surveys showed high crime rates and reported crime dropped, we might surmise (as you do, sans evidence) that more crime is going unreported. But overall crime victimization has gone down in tandem with reported crime and all the evidence says your (always anonymous, repetitive, cite-free) theory is just wrong. There's little wonder, certainly, why you don't attach your name to it.Gritsforbreakfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-78373917780624728022012-06-13T02:38:39.794-05:002012-06-13T02:38:39.794-05:00Thanks for this excellent blog, which I just came ...Thanks for this excellent blog, which I just came across while reading Drucker's 'A Plague of Prisons'.<br /><br />I wonder whether another reason for the downturn in crime, both in the official figures and in victim report studies, may not be that prisons have become, for some inmates, the 'business schools' of crime, where criminals learn to network more efficiently, negotiate with less need for open violence, and to switch activities to less visible - and often more lucrative - forms of illegal money-making? These kinds of crime will be less likely to show up in either the official or the self-report studies, as victimization is more diffuse, less individualized, and less dramatic. By this reading, imprisonment does not necessarily reduce crime, but is instrumental in changing its nature.Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01627740119613250687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-5869026056220956472012-06-12T19:38:14.281-05:002012-06-12T19:38:14.281-05:00What percentage of victims are too afraid to repor...What percentage of victims are too afraid to report the person who assaulted or raped them? How about those who live in a neighborhood where violent crime is tolerated and where it takes a brave person to "run their mouth." We don't want to believe in victim intimidation, but it's there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-78032247610481196882012-06-12T17:42:29.639-05:002012-06-12T17:42:29.639-05:00BTW, Mike Connelly, thanks as always for your exce...BTW, Mike Connelly, thanks as always for your excellent comments. Great point about those models failing to account for changes in probation. I know that adult probation has a lot more research-based tactics at its disposal than 20-30 years ago that a lot of Texas departments have embraced, and you're right I've never seen anyone attempt to quantify the effects of those changes.Gritsforbreakfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-74393320382768022362012-06-12T17:12:24.053-05:002012-06-12T17:12:24.053-05:00To those (7:50, 10:52, 1:34) saying more crime is ...To those (7:50, 10:52, 1:34) saying more crime is going unreported, please re-read the next to last paragraph in this post. If what you say is true, crime victimization surveys would not confirm the downward crime trend, but they do. There's no evidence to back up what you're saying, and fairly strong evidence it's BS.Gritsforbreakfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-42632709161752120922012-06-12T15:37:21.233-05:002012-06-12T15:37:21.233-05:00I'm behind the video game/internet reasoning.
...I'm behind the video game/internet reasoning.<br /><br />One trend I feel like I'm seeing is also the trend of drug violence happening outside of public view. I think the drug market has realized that customers feeling safe buying drugs is better for business so the actual crime frequently happens outside the cities or away from the sales.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-15036701927815953392012-06-12T15:33:08.526-05:002012-06-12T15:33:08.526-05:00I found this report on the Huffington Post UK whic...I found this report on the Huffington Post UK which the Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Association into the average takings in the UK are about 20,000 pounds, in the US the average takings during a bank robbery is $4330. <br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/06/12/robbing-banks-crime-doesnt-pay-economists_n_1589493.html?utm_hp_ref=ukPaul-UKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-9968628132706188952012-06-12T13:34:45.201-05:002012-06-12T13:34:45.201-05:00Keep in mind it is "reported crime." Th...Keep in mind it is "reported crime." There may be high levels of apathy that result in rising unreported crime rate.<br />It could also be the simple fact that jail bed space, court appointed attorney's and other high costs just can't be supported by the tax payer. <br />And crime may be going high tech and law enforcement and prosecutors haven't caught up with criminal technology.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-32154239027876663392012-06-12T10:52:43.292-05:002012-06-12T10:52:43.292-05:00the data submitted to the feds by politically mind...the data submitted to the feds by politically minded law enforcement ageny heads are being modified. face it - all law enforcement heads are politicians, who in effort to get reelected need to show that crime is down. plus, the police today even load up all types of extra charges on defendants, yet statistical analysis reflect that crime is down. these reports smell.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-86190543083269511722012-06-12T09:54:20.633-05:002012-06-12T09:54:20.633-05:00I tend to agree with Grits' favorite theory: t...I tend to agree with Grits' favorite theory: technology and the cheapness of mass market goods. Young people who may be more predisposed to deviance, or to committing violent crimes like assault, battery, rape and other forms of sexual assault now have alternative means to channel their potential for crime and deviance. I don't think it is a stretch at all to contend that they can achieve cathartic release through either violent video games, movies, TV shows, or the plethora of niche pornography available on the internet, rather than actually acting on those impulses. Plus, I think it was the Heritage Foundation that published a report saying that the vast majority of households considered under the poverty level today have things like refrigerators, microwaves, TV's, computers, DVD players, etc. While the report was trying to say the poor aren't really poor (put that aside), I'd posit that the cheapness of these goods today and the likely fact that even the lowest of the low-level jobs can allow someone to afford these goods, makes the risk of arrest and imprisonment far too great when even the most low-skilled workers and crappiest of jobs can enable people to afford these goods.Bradhttp://spatialorientation.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-72999433635019894552012-06-12T09:24:43.748-05:002012-06-12T09:24:43.748-05:00You can add to your list of possible factors the n...You can add to your list of possible factors the new work correlating: attitudes about institutions and about consumer confidence, the increase in private security forces and police, immigration (first and second generation immigrants reduce crime in the areas they settle), and the reality that much of the violence of the period eliminated violent people. What's always missing from all these analyses, including the ones you mention, is the fact that probation numbers paralleled imprisonment numbers in their rise in the period, yet no one has ever attributed the changes in crime rates to the impact of probation and community sanctions. Also, those analyses ignore the point Zimring made a while back that Canada demonstrated similar crime patterns without ANY of the policy changes the US made, prison, law enforcement, rain dances, anything. Finally, here's this. Those models "proving" a 25%-33% impact of prison DID NOT include the factors that we're talking about here. Unless/until they are run with similar probation numbers and the factors detailed, their reliability is on the order of an urban legend, "conventional wisdom" that is all of the first term and none of the second. But thanks, as usual, for the thoroughness and thoughtfulness of the post. Still a rarity in these days of commentary.mike connellyhttp://jcoconsulting.net/blognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-59677797026245296642012-06-12T08:42:49.260-05:002012-06-12T08:42:49.260-05:00Should have read "only makes sense".Should have read "only makes sense".Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00341616417168200955noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-23452334025464954992012-06-12T08:41:30.663-05:002012-06-12T08:41:30.663-05:00anon: 8:21 Incarceration and threat of punishment...anon: 8:21 Incarceration and threat of punishment as a deterrent only if you see the criminal as a totally rational being. That's usually not the case.Donhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00341616417168200955noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-56725899214461346962012-06-12T08:21:14.047-05:002012-06-12T08:21:14.047-05:00Perhaps the increased incarceration rates also cau...Perhaps the increased incarceration rates also caused a deterrent effect beyond those violent offenders who are actually incarcerated. In other words, maybe society in Texas has finally gotten the message that Texas is tough on crime.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-60406084785828584192012-06-12T07:51:19.719-05:002012-06-12T07:51:19.719-05:00Grits,
What is going on with the street prices of...Grits,<br /><br />What is going on with the street prices of illegal drugs, particularly heroin, cocaine and meth? The prevailing dogma years ago was that those addicted to such were the main perpetrators of theft of consumer goods, stealing to raise cash to feed their addictions. If the street prices of these drugs are down, then that might have some influence on the theft stats.<br /><br />On the other hand, if the street prices are not down, then....never mind.dorannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-67436640270765426342012-06-12T07:50:51.869-05:002012-06-12T07:50:51.869-05:00"Reported crime" has declined, or is it ..."Reported crime" has declined, or is it "the reporting of crime" that has declined? What happens to those who report? As they say, "keep your mouth shut or else."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-26971028721607685852012-06-12T07:46:25.331-05:002012-06-12T07:46:25.331-05:00Sociological criminologists in the 1970s and '...Sociological criminologists in the 1970s and '80s predicted a drop in crime when the echo-boom, the children of baby boomers, began to age out of the prime crime committing years (late teens and early 20s. Many echo-boomers are now in their 30s and some in their 40s.<br /><br />So, perhaps part of the explanation is that the number of those likely to commit crime is down b/c of population aging, incarceration of some, and additional understanding of the factors that lead to crime.Arcenoreply@blogger.com