tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post6254921097781396039..comments2024-03-25T20:06:39.794-05:00Comments on Grits for Breakfast: If tough-on-crime works so well, what's up with murder spikes in Texas cities?Gritsforbreakfasthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-14544961440128729392017-01-07T09:04:31.166-06:002017-01-07T09:04:31.166-06:00Of the 3 assertions in what might otherwise seem t...Of the 3 assertions in what might otherwise seem to be the money quote in your commentary("After all, [1] there's nothing connecting murderers but the outcome of their actions. [2] They're solely responsible for what they do and [3] police realistically have few means to prevent them from doing it."), all are overstatements, in varying degrees. Perhaps most egregious is [1]. Often, while most murderers do act independently in some sense, modest analysis can still find much connecting the events: factually, gang wars and drug turf battles drive significant segments of homicide totals; and social-cultural factors can readily be identified that link murderers who, otherwise, are too easily seen as acting independently. In one sense they do, of course, but many social-cultural factors connect them and their choices. Mass failures in the modern American family structure (mostly, the lack thereof) and the failure of American societal institutions (schools, mainly) to replace the lost sense of responsibility to an outside force or develop an adequate sense of conscience (lost with the rejection of organized religion) combine with the "usual" factors (poverty, gun accessibility, etc.) to connect murderers. The American deficit in impulse control, compared to other nations' residents, is stark, troubling, and little discussed. That deficit, too, connects many murderers. Moreover, total shootings, not murders, is a more important statistic, since whether a shooting becomes a murder is quite often a matter of luck (good or bad) of the shooter and of the victim (e.g., poor vs. good aim; body position at time of bullet entry; availability/quality of medical care).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-9326785065828828842017-01-05T01:14:22.569-06:002017-01-05T01:14:22.569-06:00Most violent crimes are attributable to drugs one ...Most violent crimes are attributable to drugs one way or another, one degree or another and media accounts rarely give us the true picture as to why a crime occurred. True research takes time and money and sound bytes are what keeps the public enthralled. I'd like to see a study that separates murders into two groups---domestic partners and total strangers and see if trends emerge. Obtaining money for drugs and irrational behavior resulting from drug usage appear to me as the two driving forces for murder but that is just my theory. I wonder if drugs cause the robberies and burglaries that so often result in murder? <br /><br />On a related note, once TDCJ and Austin figure out that ill, elderly and harmless inmates should be put on the Medicare and Medicaid dime instead of the state budget prison space and revenue can be better allocated to handling the youthful murderers and others that need to be behind a wall. <br /><br />Some surveys indicate that the statistical chances for a gun owner to be murdered are quite low for "death by intruder" versus "death by domestic partner". <br /><br />FBI homicide data table eight divides murders out by the weapon of choice and might help in a study of murder. <br /><br />There is an interesting cross over point between murders and suicides since each is sometimes mistakenly concluded to be the other and this might be affecting studies that often have nebulous results. Insurance investigators have told me that somewhere between two thirds and three quarters of all firearm deaths are in fact suicides---and these usually happen after a person gets bad medical news. The twist here is that, since many insurance policies don't pay on a suicide some policyholders get very creative in the scenario they leave police to unravel. A suicide usually means the family doesn't cash in on the beloved departed.<br /><br />Whither the actual murder totals?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-1932511243616678102017-01-04T14:43:57.812-06:002017-01-04T14:43:57.812-06:00I'm not sure how useful the average murder rat...I'm not sure how useful the average murder rate for a large city is. Nobody lives, or commits crimes, on the average. They do it at a specific place. At least in Austin, we seem to be seeing an increasing geographic concentration of murders - some neighborhoods consistently have a lot, some neighborhoods pretty much never. A more relevant measure of how safe a city is might be the size of the gap, not the overall average.<br /><br />We also continue to see sharp disparity in the demographics of the people involved. Again, a better measure of a city's safety might be whether subpopulations are just as safe as the average.<br /><br />LisaHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-91674956686818859132017-01-04T05:48:54.408-06:002017-01-04T05:48:54.408-06:00That last one's not really plausible, 6:47, si...That last one's not really plausible, 6:47, since murder rates are lower in non-DP states.<br /><br />My analysis, btw, includes population growth, which is why I think the rates are more important than the totals. As to your timeline, Texas filled up its last prison in the mid-aughts, mainly because conviction per arrest increased while crime plummeted. The folks diverted out are all low-level nonviolent offenders, not murderers. The facts just don't support your alternative theories.Gritsforbreakfasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10152152869466958902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8597101.post-81613828987427452162017-01-03T18:47:42.391-06:002017-01-03T18:47:42.391-06:00Texas may be incarcerating more people than anyone...Texas may be incarcerating more people than anyone else, but the better question is whether we're keeping up with the population growth? When is the last time Texas opened new prison? Without having the stats readily available, my guess is that the number or prison beds in Texas since the mid 90's hasn't increased nearly at the same rate as the population growth in this state. Even if the number of murders per capita go DOWN, if the population grows enough simple math will dictate the number of murders committed and the number of murderers who need to be incarcerated will increase. In my opinion, without an analysis of the population growth, your tough on crime argument is a non-sequitur.<br /><br />Incidentally, an equally plausible (if not more justified) claim would be that the increase in murders is more directly related to the well publicized reduction in the use of the death penalty in this state over the last few years. Let that one sink in for a few moments...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com