Whither justice reforms in a post-Craddick House?

I've been taking an "I'll believe it when I see it" approach to claims by "insurgents" in the Texas House of Representatives that they had enough votes to definitively oust Speaker Tom Craddick. But combined with seemingly every other GOP House member having announced their Speaker candidacy, the news yesterday that House Democrats released 64 anti-Craddick signatures (pdf) makes me think that, even though he's still the biggest, meanest dog in the fight, at the end of the day the pack will probably take him down.

There are 74 Democrats in the House, so 64 anti-Craddick signatures means 10 didn't sign, and predictably they're all "Craddick Ds," i.e., Democrats who backed Craddick for Speaker in 2007 and were rewarded with plumb committee assignments.

The list of non-signers includes several Democrats who hold key leadership positions on criminal justice topics, most prominently: Harold Dutton (Juvenile Justice and Family Issues Chair), Aaron Peña (Criminal Jurisprudence Chair) and Sylvester Turner (Chair of the Criminal Justice subcommittee on House Appropriations - himself a Speaker candidate). Non-signers also included my own state rep, Dawnna Dukes, and Appropriations Committee Vice Chair Ryan Guillen. So if the insurgents win, it's reasonable to speculate these members could lose their leadership spots, though there's also still a lot of horse trading yet to be done.

Perhaps the biggest loss if House leadership changed hands might be Corrections Committee Chairman Jerry Madden, a Republican whose extraordinary performance in that role IMO has made him one of the stars of the House. The West Point graduate and former engineer has served the state admirably and is well respected by nearly everyone on both sides of the aisle, so I'm hopeful that, if a post-Craddick coalition emerges, he'll get an opportunity to join it so he can hang onto that chairmanship and finish the visionary work he's begun.

Indeed, Paul Burka thinks Madden may be part of a group of swing votes - the R’s and D’s who aren’t comfortable with the current leadership of their parties and want to move on beyond Craddick" - who could wind up choosing the next Speaker.

While I was certainly critical of Tom Craddick's improper seizure of power from House members in 2007, on criminal justice reform his approach has ranged from ambivalent to modestly supportive. Both his committee appointees and the full House have passed quite a bit of important reform legislation during his tenure - much more than when Democrats controlled the lower chamber - even if Governor Perry's vetoes dulled their legacy and prevented an even more significant impact.

But for good or ill, now the die has been cast and the likelihood of a fourth Speaker term for Tom Craddick seems increasingly thin, making it quite likely that a different cast of characters could be calling the shots on key committees next year in the Texas House of Representatives.

MORE: Kuff rounds up more Speaker's race speculation.

AND MORE: Burka now believes the Speaker's race boils down to three possibilities: Dan Gattis, John Smithee or Burt Solomons.