In reality, how frequent are "stranger danger" type abductions? According to a 2002 national study by USDOJ, "an estimated 115 children and youth were the victims of a stereotypical kidnapping in the study year" out of a total of "58,200 nonfamily abduction victims." That's why "the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC) has never supported the “stranger-danger” message, especially because experience has shown us that most children are actually taken by someone they know or are familiar with."
So where's the video telling kids to beware molestation or abduction by their parents or close family friends?
At 115 "stereotypical" abductions per year (the number ranges, said DOJ, between 60 and 170), that's a rate of roughly .14 per 100,000 kids. Compared to other childhood risks, that's truly de minimus. By contrast, youth are 15 times as likely to commit suicide (2.1 per 100,000). This blogger takes the statistical analysis even further:
The odds of dying in a plane crash are 1 in 310,000. The odds of being abducted by a stranger? 1 in 610,000! Wow, that means that a child is more likely to die in a plane crash than get kidnapped by a stranger. That isn't the coolest thing though. ... The odds of being struck by lightning are 1 in 240,000! That's right, do the math ... A child is 2 and a half times more likely to get hit by lightening than to get taken by a stranger!To listen to the video put out by APD, you'd think kids were getting snatched off the streets by strangers in Austin at all hours of the day and night. That's a misrepresentation and it provides no obvious benefit to public safety (though perhaps for public safety budgets) for police to scare the public by promoting it.