Mexican presidential elections and border security

What makes the escalation of the drug war in northern  Mexico so disoncerting - and also explains the impotence of the military and the federales to confront major drug cartels in that country - is that the fundamental causes of their sad situation are economic and political, not necessarily related to the success or (more often) failure of the justice system.

On the political side, high-level corruption defines this conflict in the eyes of many Mexicans I know. Under stewardship of the "PRI," which was the ruling party from the time of the revolution until 12 years ago, political favor doled out smuggling opportunities to various criminal organizations who, the theory goes, were allowed to operate in exchange for (relatively) low levels of violence. Once the PRI lost power, though, the infrastructure controlling the beast fell apart - first in Juarez and then Nuevo Laredo and beyond - corruption factionalized by region, and criminal gangs began openly competing for turf. By the time President Calderon sent the military in to take over security in northern Mexico, the government had become merely one of several competitors for political power. Think of it from a citizen's standpoint: If you want to remain safe, should you pay your taxes to the government or the criminal gang running a protection racket in your community? It's a non-trivial question.

On the economic front, NAFTA helped spawn a legitimate middle class in Mexico that didn't exist before, but it also depopulated rural areas, driving thousands of families, including  many with relatively little education or skills, out of agriculture and into an urban proletariat where the country's legitimate economic base was ill-prepared to absorb them. Such desperate poverty and lack of opportunity, combined with rational personal security decisions, underlie the cost-benefit analysis of many Mexicans who side with the drug smugglers against the government (or else waffle tentatively in the middle, waiting to identify the likely victor). This story about the massive drought in northern Mexico - for which I almost feel guilty after the bout of rain we've had -  makes me think the economic end of the equation may only get worse in the short term.

With military and police enforcement seemingly unable to stem the violence (it's declined in Juarez but expanded elsewhere in Mexico), and the Mexican public understandably opposed to direct US intervention, that pretty much leaves a poltiical solution as the only viable path forward for the troubled state. And that makes this summer's presidential elections in Mexico (replacing Calderon's successor for the next six years) more important for Texas' "border security," arguably, even than the US presidential race. In any event, the three-candidate field is now complete and it's a virtual guarantee any debates on "border security" will be more substantive and interesting than any we're seeing in the (endless?) GOP contest for US president, which should be refreshing in and of itself.