Poll: Tough on crime messages don't resonate with critical swing voters

Last month Hill Research Consultants, a GOP polling firm based in the Woodlands, issued a public poll aimed at demonstrating to decisionmakers and the Republican base the need for the GOP in Texas to change tactics or risk a near-term toppling by Democrats in statewide elections within just a few cycles. (See the report.)

Without going into the details, which are well worth a read, to judge by these data, the GOP in Texas faces a tough row to hoe rebuilding its post-Bush image. The number that stunned me, in particular, was the answer to the question of which party "cares about the concerns and problems of people like me." Nineteen percent said Republicans while a whopping 50% - of Texans - answered Democrats. As HRC said, "Long term, this is simply untenable."

David Benizon at the Lone Star Times has already admirably adumbrated the poll's main details, but I wanted to point readers to a couple of tidbits related to criminal justice policy:

HRC segmented the electorate into groups based on their relative commitment to the major parties and discovered surprising trends. Among "enduring GOP" voters, 38% considered themselves "law and order conservatives," while just 17% of "emerging conservatives" thought thusly. That's a big dropoff in intensity. I take from this that those not already firmly ensconced in the GOP base aren't as attached to tuff on crime messages as their more hard-core brethren among "enduring" Republicans. Crime was not mentioned as a significant concern of "critical middle" voters.

Asked which party was "committed to fair and impartial justice for all," the GOP trailed Democrats 42-32 among all voters.

Asked to list their "top of the mind," biggest issues, just 2% of the electorate offered answers related to "crime, drugs, gangs and prisons," compared to 10% who answered healthcare and 29% who answered the economy. Illegal immigration also came in at 10%, with 6 of the top 9 self-offered issues related to pocketbook economic concerns.

Speaking of which, said HRC, "Like it or not, [critical middle] voters don’t care about illegal immigration or traditional values with the same intensity as our [GOP] base." HRC estimates the GOP must win 80% of so-called critical middle and all the "emerging GOP" voters to retain control of the state in the medium term.

Many have wondered why crime did not become an issue in the 2008 presidential elections, and perhaps the answer is that crime has become a much less dominant issue among voters - especially centrist swing voters - than has been the case for the last couple of decades. Even in Texas.